Not just another warning

Op-ed: IDF intelligence chief’s grim prediction for next regional war should be taken seriously

The IDF intelligence chief provided a thick hint regarding Israel’s interest in two nuclear programs in enemy countries; he was not only talking about Iran. Was it a slip of the tongue? Hard to believe.

When Israelis woke up the day after the nuclear reactor in Syriawas attacked and heard that Israel was suspected of carrying out the strike, officials here were gravely concerned about a looming Syrian missile offensive. They estimated that the Syrians would have to respond to the very revelation of the strike, if only to maintain their honor.

However, for a while now, the International Atomic Energy Agency has been addressing Syria as a state that attempted to produce nuclear weapons in the bombed reactor. Hence, as he is about to complete his tenure, Major General Amos Yadlin was able to let his tongue loose and boast of his achievements. Why not? He deserves it.

In the past, Yadlin also boasted of the IDF’s capabilities on the cyber warfare front (without anyone understanding why). So why did he expose that secret? Actually, why not? Let the enemy know.

Yet we were barely able to digest the first secret, when Yadlin told us, almost in the same breath, that soon the Iranians will possess enough enriched uranium to produce two nuclear bombs. The IDF intelligence chief is not yet another academic expert providing his assessments. His words have operative significance. And when the intelligence chief exposes such information to the world, this is his way of calling on someone to do something.

The real thing 

However, the most surprising revelation in the intelligence chief’s speech was in fact a warning. Yadlin described what the next war would look like. He said it will not be managed in one theater only – we will not enjoy the luxury of facing Lebanon alone. The war will simultaneously take place in two, three, or even four different theaters.

Central Israel will be attacked by missiles not only from the north, but also from the Gaza Strip, which is home to missiles that today threaten Tel Aviv and its environs. Yadlin made it clear thatOperation Cast Lead and theSecond Lebanon War are both a scenario from the past. The next regional war would be of different scope, and the casualty toll would be of different dimensions than we’ve known so far.

So this is not just another general warning. This is solid intelligence information. It’s the real thing.